January 10, 2018 Sue Mi Terry—
The two Koreas held their first talks this week in over two years. Reflective of the thaw in inter-Korean relations brought about by North Korea’s participation in the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics, predictive signals by Predata/CSIS Beyond Parallel indicate a decreased likelihood of North Korean WMD activity within the next 14-day window. The predictive signal reached its lowest level since October 28, 2017. The 7-day and 14-day predictive signals also reached their lowest levels on January 9 since November 25, 2017.
November 22, 2017 Marie DuMond—
On November 22, predictive signals by Predata/CSIS Beyond Parallel indicate there is an elevated likelihood of a North Korean WMD activity in the next 14 to 30 day windows. The likelihood of WMD activity in the coming weeks is tempered by the fact that, historically, North Korea has not conducted many tests in the November and December timeframe.
November 3, 2017 Lisa Collins and Sang Jun Lee—
Predictive analytics by PreData/CSIS Beyond Parallel for missile tests and WMD activity indicate that the underlying signals for both the 14-day prediction level has been trending downward since October 24, 2017... PreData/CSIS Beyond Parallel predictive analytics for North Korean missile tests and WMD activity indicate that…
September 22, 2017 Marie DuMond—
Predata-Beyond Parallel signals indicate there is a significantly elevated chance of North Korea conducting a missile test in the next 30-days and an elevated likelihood of North Korea conducting a missile test in the next 14-days... [footer] Elevated chance of a North Korean missile test in the next 14 days.…
September 7, 2017 Marie DuMond—
On September 7, predictive signals by Predata/CSIS Beyond Parallel indicate there is a significantly elevated chance of a North Korean missile test in the next 14 days. The underlying signal has been breaching its highest levels each day since August 31, reaching its highest level in 102 days on September 5 and exceeding its 30-day trailing average by 2.5 standard deviations. The signal continued to show significant overnight increases through September 6.
May 12, 2017 Marie DuMond—
A Predata-CSIS Beyond Parallel May 12 prediction indicates there is a 69% likelihood of North Korean weapons of mass destruction (WMD) activity taking place in the next 14 days. In the next 30 days, there is an 85% chance for North Korean WMD activity. Beyond Parallel defines WMD activity as nuclear tests and missile launches.
May 5, 2017 Gordon LaForge—
On May 9, South Koreans go to the polls in a snap presidential election. Predata signals show that with the vote approaching, online conversations about the economy are louder than those about national security. The latest public opinion surveys found Moon held a commanding lead. But a polling blackout took effect on May 3, leaving observers to wonder how public sentiment may shift in the crucial week before balloting.
April 13, 2017 Marie DuMond—
A Predata-CSIS Beyond Parallel April 13 prediction indicates there is a 58% likelihood of North Korean WMD activity taking place in the next 14 days. In the next 30 days, there is an 84% chance for North Korean WMD activity. Beyond Parallel defines WMD activity as nuclear tests and missile launches.
April 5, 2017 Marie DuMond—
Beyond Parallel datasets and big data analytics powered by Predata indicate we can expect more North Korean missiles throughout April. Last month bore that prediction out already with four ballistic missiles launched simultaneously on March 6, one failed ballistic missile launch on March 22, and two additional rocket/missile engine tests. In its latest action, on April 5, North Korea fired a ballistic missile from a location near the city of Sinpo which flew approximately 37 miles into the sea east of the Korean peninsula.
March 9, 2017 Marie DuMond—
Predata’s North Korea WMD overview signal captured a notable spike in conversations just two days prior to North Korea’s March 6 missile launches... A Predata-Beyond Parallel prediction indicates there is a 43% chance of North Korean WMD activity…