Unification Transparency Index: Allied Views of China and Japan

Analysis, Economics, Environment, Foreign Affairs, Governance, Health, Human Rights, Humanitarian Aid, Infrastructure & Energy, Legal, Military, Nuclear Weapons, Refugees & Migration
, by South Korea and the United States generally share similar estimations of China’s and Japan’s blind spots in a unification scenario. Both believe that Beijing has the most prominent blind spot on domestic stabilization and refugees, and that Japan shares similar concerns, suggesting that all four powers could prioritize law and order in a unification scenario.

North Korea WMD Activity in December: Naughty or Nice?

Military
, by On November 22, predictive signals by Predata/CSIS Beyond Parallel indicate there is an elevated likelihood of a North Korean WMD activity in the next 14 to 30 day windows. The likelihood of WMD activity in the coming weeks is tempered by the fact that, historically, North Korea has not conducted many tests in the November and December timeframe.

Comparing South Korea and U.S. Perceptions of Korean Unification

Analysis, Economics, Environment, Foreign Affairs, Governance, Health, Human Rights, Humanitarian Aid, Infrastructure & Energy, Legal, Military, Nuclear Weapons, Refugees & Migration
, by Beyond Parallel’s first-ever survey of expert assessments on unification-related issues indicate South Korea and the United States share the common view that domestic stabilization and unification costs constitute the most critical unification blind spots with a high degree of concern but low levels of knowledge for both countries.

Unification Transparency Index: South Korea

Analysis, Economics, Environment, Foreign Affairs, Governance, Health, Human Rights, Humanitarian Aid, Infrastructure & Energy, Legal, Military, Nuclear Weapons, Refugees & Migration
, by Domestic stabilization is the most critical issue with unification for South Korean officials and experts, registering the highest composite score (i.e., high level of concern and low level of knowledge). This means civil-military relations, law and order, and stability in the North represent the issues for which Koreans see great consequences for national interests, but for which they have little prior knowledge or understanding. Hence, it is the greatest potential “blind spot” of unification. Costs related to unification rank a close second for South Koreans, followed by refugees, nuclear weapons, and human rights.

More North Korean Rocket Tests Possibly on the Horizon

Military
, by Predata-Beyond Parallel signals indicate there is a significantly elevated chance of North Korea conducting a missile test in the next 30-days and an elevated likelihood of North Korea conducting a missile test in the next 14-days... [footer]   Elevated chance of a North Korean missile test in the next 14 days.…

North Korean Missile Tests Possible Before September Ends

Military
, by On September 7, predictive signals by Predata/CSIS Beyond Parallel indicate there is a significantly elevated chance of a North Korean missile test in the next 14 days. The underlying signal has been breaching its highest levels each day since August 31, reaching its highest level in 102 days on September 5 and exceeding its 30-day trailing average by 2.5 standard deviations. The signal continued to show significant overnight increases through September 6.

Living History with Ambassador Chun Yung-woo

Foreign Affairs, Military, Nuclear Weapons
The objective of the Six Party Talks was to resolve the North Korean nuclear problem through multilateral negotiations. In this Living History interview, Ambassador Chun Yung-woo reflects upon his experience negotiating with the Americans, Chinese and North Koreans during the Six Party Talks and also discusses his later role as National Security Advisor to ROK President Lee Myung-bak.

Next Steps After North Korea’s July 4th Missile Test

Military
North Korea launched a land-based, intermediate range ballistic missile from North Pyongan province that flew for 37 minutes and 933 km (580 miles) in the morning of July 4. CSIS Beyond Parallel data analytics finds a two-week provocation window under Kim Jong-un after U.S.-ROK summits. We should expect more provocations to come.