May 12, 2017 Marie DuMond—
A Predata-CSIS Beyond Parallel May 12 prediction indicates there is a 69% likelihood of North Korean weapons of mass destruction (WMD) activity taking place in the next 14 days. In the next 30 days, there is an 85% chance for North Korean WMD activity. Beyond Parallel defines WMD activity as nuclear tests and missile launches.
May 10, 2017 Victor Cha and Lisa Collins—
Exit polls from the May 9th election in South Korea indicate that Moon Jae-in will be the country’s next president. Moon will enter office after more than six months of domestic political turmoil following the impeachment of former South Korean president Park Geun-hye. Under these circumstances, Moon is likely to face a series of domestic and foreign policy challenges early in his presidential term.
May 5, 2017 Gordon LaForge—
On May 9, South Koreans go to the polls in a snap presidential election. Predata signals show that with the vote approaching, online conversations about the economy are louder than those about national security. The latest public opinion surveys found Moon held a commanding lead. But a polling blackout took effect on May 3, leaving observers to wonder how public sentiment may shift in the crucial week before balloting.
April 18, 2017 Victor Cha—
To study the relationship between North Korean provocations and South Korean elections, Beyond Parallel created a new database of events incorporating both presidential and national assembly elections from the Republic of Korea (ROK) over the last six decades.
April 3, 2017—
Beyond Parallel conducted a study of whether there are patterns to North Korean behavior around U.S. elections. To carry out this study we created a dataset of U.S. election events, incorporating both presidential and congressional midterm election years, and cross-tabulated this information with our original dataset on North Korean provocations over the same period.
November 4, 2016 Evan Ramstad—
President Park's mistakes are far less harmful than those of the men who came before her... In 2011, as she geared up for the 2012 presidential election in South Korea, Park Geun-hye told aides that she would like to reach out to some of the people her father fought and…
October 7, 2016 Victor Cha—
Over the course of 30 elections since 1956, Beyond Parallel measured the period of time before or after an election in which a North Korean provocation happens and found the provocation window has grown more narrow over time. That is, North Korean missile/nuclear tests and other major kinetic provocations have clustered increasingly closer to U.S. elections.