October 7, 2016 Victor Cha—
Over the course of 30 elections since 1956, Beyond Parallel measured the period of time before or after an election in which a North Korean provocation happens and found the provocation window has grown more narrow over time. That is, North Korean missile/nuclear tests and other major kinetic provocations have clustered increasingly closer to U.S. elections.
September 12, 2016 Van Jackson—
The fifth test is significant because it reaffirms an undeniable sea change in how we should read North Korean intentions... At around 10 kilotons, North Korea’s September 9 nuclear test reportedly marks its largest yet. It was also the third such detonation under Kim Jong-un...
September 9, 2016 Victor Cha—
North Korean nuclear and missile capabilities are developing faster than world leaders and experts have anticipated.
.. North Korea conducted a fifth nuclear test on September 9, 2016 at the Punggye-ri nuclear testing facility The explosive yield of the test was assessed by experts to be 10 kilotons, higher than any other…
September 9, 2016 Jeffrey Lewis—
Yesterday’s nuclear test, the fifth by North Korea since 2006 suggests that North Korea can arm a missile with a nuclear warhead. And that may portend a significant change in how the United States thinks about dealing with North Korea... Yesterday’s nuclear test, the fifth by North Korea since 2006 suggests that North Korea can…
August 18, 2016—
A new study by Beyond Parallel shows that annual US-ROK military exercises do not provoke North Korea... A Beyond Parallel study showsthat annual U.S.-South Korea military exercises – such as Ulchi Freedom Guardian which commence next week – do not provoke North Korea. The study’s findings demonstrate that these summer/fall exercises, like…
August 7, 2016—
CSIS Beyond Parallel datasets offer…
July 13, 2016 Patrick M. Cronin—
Kim Jong-un’s regime has been systematically sanctioned since early this calendar year. Recent measures build on years of international sanctions on North Korea... Kim Jong-un’s regime has been systematically sanctioned since early this calendar year. Recent measures build…
June 30, 2016 Victor Cha—
Small-scale kinetic military conflicts and provocations that escalate quickly into a larger conflict could draw countries into a major war. The more we understand the relationship between North Korean provocations and U.S.-ROK military exercises, the more accurately we can determine the redlines for military action and regional conflict escalation.
May 27, 2016—
The 1994 Agreed Framework was the result of negotiations between the United States and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) over the course of nearly two years. Signed on October 21, 1994, the goal of the agreement was to freeze North Korea’s suspected nuclear weapons program.
May 27, 2016—
To critically test this proposition, Beyond Parallel gathered data on the relationship between the United States-Republic of Korea (ROK) military exercises and North Korean provocations. The scope of our qualitative study was the past 12 years of annual U.S.-ROK spring military exercises (2005–2016).