On March 21, 2020 North Korea launched two projectiles from Sonchon county in North Pyongan province towards the sea between Korea and Japan. The launches took place five minutes apart at 6:45am and 6:50am KST, respectively.
The projectiles traveled a distance of 410km (255 miles) at a maximum altitude of 50km (31 miles) and closely resemble the KN-24 short-range ballistic missile system.
This is the third event of Q1 in 2020, which is equivalent to the number of missile provocations in Q1 of 2017 during the “Fire and Fury” era.
Q1 2017
Date
Type
Event
Number of Projectiles
Projectile Type
02-12-2017
Missile Provocation
Medium-range Ballistic Missile Launch
One
Pukguksong-2
03-06-2017
Missile Provocation
Medium-range Ballistic Missile Launches
Four
SCUD-ER or Hwasong-7
03-22-2017
Missile Provocation
Ballistic Missile Launch
One
Type Unknown
Q1 2020
Date
Type
Event
Number of Projectiles
Projectile Type
03-02-2020
Missile Provocation
Multiple Launch Rocket System Tests
Two
SRBM
03-09-2020
Missile Provocation
Multiple Launch Rocket Systems Test
Three
Short-range Projectiles
03-21-2020
Missile Provocation
Short-range Ballistic Missile Launches
Two
KN-24
In terms of the actual number of projectiles, North Korea has launched more in 2020 thus far than in 2017.
North Korea claims it has no cases, but this is hard to fathom given that they are physically located between two of the largest outbreaks, there is a unique transmission vector through China, and North Korea has a vulnerable population and non-existent health infrastructure.
This remains consistent with our view that there is a slim window for dialogue through Spring 2020 before North Korea goes dark and waits for the results of the U.S. elections in November.
Kim Jong-un observes the launches that took place on March 21, 2020. (Source: KCNA)
Photograph published by North Korean state media of the March 21, 2020 launch. (Source: KCNA)
Victor Cha is a senior adviser and the inaugural holder of the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
