May 12, 2017 Marie DuMond—
A Predata-CSIS Beyond Parallel May 12 prediction indicates there is a 69% likelihood of North Korean weapons of mass destruction (WMD) activity taking place in the next 14 days. In the next 30 days, there is an 85% chance for North Korean WMD activity. Beyond Parallel defines WMD activity as nuclear tests and missile launches.
April 18, 2017 Victor Cha—
To study the relationship between North Korean provocations and South Korean elections, Beyond Parallel created a new database of events incorporating both presidential and national assembly elections from the Republic of Korea (ROK) over the last six decades.
April 13, 2017 Marie DuMond—
A Predata-CSIS Beyond Parallel April 13 prediction indicates there is a 58% likelihood of North Korean WMD activity taking place in the next 14 days. In the next 30 days, there is an 84% chance for North Korean WMD activity. Beyond Parallel defines WMD activity as nuclear tests and missile launches.
March 8, 2017—
Ambassador Christopher Hill reflects on his personal experience as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs and head of the U.S. delegation to the Six Party Talks from 2005 to 2009... In 2003, the Six Party Talks were launched to seek a peaceful resolution to the…
October 17, 2016—
Last week marked the 10th anniversary of North Korea’s first nuclear test. Each new nuclear test triggers comparisons with previous tests and predictions about future tests... Last week marked the 10th anniversary of North Korea’s first nuclear test. Each new nuclear…
October 7, 2016 Victor Cha—
Over the course of 30 elections since 1956, Beyond Parallel measured the period of time before or after an election in which a North Korean provocation happens and found the provocation window has grown more narrow over time. That is, North Korean missile/nuclear tests and other major kinetic provocations have clustered increasingly closer to U.S. elections.
September 15, 2016 Sharon Squassoni—
Last week, Kim Jong-un celebrated the 68th anniversary of the North Korean state with a nuclear test designed to strike fear in the hearts of North Korea’s adversaries. .. Last week, Kim Jong-un celebrated the 68th anniversary of the North Korean state with a…
September 12, 2016 Van Jackson—
The fifth test is significant because it reaffirms an undeniable sea change in how we should read North Korean intentions... At around 10 kilotons, North Korea’s September 9 nuclear test reportedly marks its largest yet. It was also the third such detonation under Kim Jong-un...
September 9, 2016 Victor Cha—
North Korean nuclear and missile capabilities are developing faster than world leaders and experts have anticipated.
.. North Korea conducted a fifth nuclear test on September 9, 2016 at the Punggye-ri nuclear testing facility The explosive yield of the test was assessed by experts to be 10 kilotons, higher than any other…
September 9, 2016 Jeffrey Lewis—
Yesterday’s nuclear test, the fifth by North Korea since 2006 suggests that North Korea can arm a missile with a nuclear warhead. And that may portend a significant change in how the United States thinks about dealing with North Korea... Yesterday’s nuclear test, the fifth by North Korea since 2006 suggests that North Korea can…