March 30, 2020 Victor Cha—
On March 29, 2020 at 6:10 am KST, North Korea launched two projectiles speculated to be short-range ballistic missiles from the Wonsan area in Kangwon province into the sea between Korea and Japan. The missiles traveled a distance of 230 kilometers (143 miles) and reached a peak altitude of 30 kilometers (19 miles). An announcement published in North Korean state media the following day confirmed that the two missiles were launched as part of super-large multiple rocket launcher tests. It also stated the test was carried out by the Academy of Defence Science.
March 23, 2020 Victor Cha and Dana Kim—
On March 21, 2020 North Korea launched two projectiles from Sonchon county in North Pyongan province towards the East Sea. The launches took place 5 minutes apart at 6:45am and 6:50am KST, respectively. The projectiles traveled a distance of 410km (255 miles) at a maximum altitude of 50km (31 miles) and closely resemble the KN-24 short-range ballistic missile system. This is the third event of Q1 in 2020, which is equivalent to the number of missile provocations in Q1 of 2017 during the “Fire and Fury” era.
March 2, 2020 Victor Cha and Dana Kim—
On March 2, 2020 at 12:37pm (KST), North Korea launched two short-range projectiles from the Wonsan, Kangwon Province area towards the East Sea. The projectiles traveled a distance of 240km (150 miles) at a maximum altitude of 35km (22 miles) with a 20-second interval between the two launches. While the exact type and model of the projectiles are yet to be confirmed, considering the nature of the test they may be SRBMs or new surface-to-surface missiles. The short interval time also indicates that the event may have been a multiple rocket launcher system test.
February 5, 2020 Victor Cha and Marie DuMond—
Reports of the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV spreading to regions bordering North Korea could pose a real risk to the North Korean people. Policy debates on North Korea tend to underestimate health as one of the regime’s key vulnerabilities. North Korea’s insecurities about its health system have been evident in its draconian responses to past pandemics including SARS (2002-2003), Middle East respiratory syndrome [MERS] (2012), and Ebola (2018).
December 27, 2019 Victor Cha—
Christmas passed without the threatened “Christmas gift” from North Korea. President Trump quipped while on holiday in Mar-a-Lago that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un might send him a “beautiful vase” rather than a missile as a gift. In either event, the two years of summit diplomacy and Trump-Kim “bromance” appears to have reached a turning point with no progress on denuclearization since the failed Hanoi summit and a series of North Korean missile tests in the past two months.
October 17, 2019 Joseph Bermudez and Victor Cha—
Analysis of satellite imagery of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility acquired during 2019 and more specifically on September 23rd and October 9th, 2019 shows the facility in caretaker status, likely being maintained by security personnel. While there is no evidence of current efforts to restore any of the nuclear test portals, several observations lead us to believe the facility has not been permanently disabled and that the detonations in May 2018 are not necessarily irreversible.
October 2, 2019 Joseph Bermudez, Victor Cha and Dana Kim—
Around 7:11 am on October 2 (KST), North Korea launched what may have been a submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from waters northeast of the Wonsan, Kangwon Province area into the sea between Korea and Japan. The last Beyond Parallel report on the Sinpo South Shipyard indicated the possibility of ongoing preparations for a launch.
August 22, 2019 Victor Cha—
The South Korean government announcement of its intention not to renew the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) represents escalation of the Japan-Korea dispute after each side removed the other from preferential trading arrangements (so-called "whitelists").
August 2, 2019 Victor Cha and Dana Kim—
Three projectile launches, all within the past eight days, demonstrate North Korea’s intention to perfect its short-range strike capabilities, guidance systems, and solid fuel development... North Korea conducted three separate tests that launched two projectiles each on July 25 (KN-23…
April 10, 2019 Joseph Bermudez and Victor Cha—
On the eve of President Trump’s summit with ROK president Moon Jae-in, commercial satellite imagery acquired on April 7 shows that, although not conclusive, North Korea may be preparing for a parade to honor Kim Il-sung’s birthday (April 15) or KPA Foundation Day (April 25).