North Korea’s No. 17 Explosives Factory: No Significant Activity

Military, Nuclear Weapons
, by and Satellite imagery acquired on March 21, 2019 and over the past six months indicates that the No. 17 Explosives Factory near Hamhung is active. While no significant changes have occurred with its infrastructure during this period, the factory was expanded during 2012 with the construction of a large mixing/casting facility capable of producing large solid-propellant rocket motors for ballistic missiles.

Sohae Launch Facility Update—Work Continues; Concealment of Launch Pad and Engine Test Stand

Military, Nuclear Weapons
, by and Commercial satellite imagery acquired on both March 6 and March 8, 2019, shows that North Korea has continued preparations on the launch pad and the vertical engine test stand at the Sohae Launch Facility. Based on past practices, these activities could be consistent with preparations for the delivery of a rocket to the launch pad or engine to the test stand; or, they could be North Korean coercive bargaining tactics after the failed Hanoi summit.

Next Steps After North Korea’s July 4th Missile Test

Military
North Korea launched a land-based, intermediate range ballistic missile from North Pyongan province that flew for 37 minutes and 933 km (580 miles) in the morning of July 4. CSIS Beyond Parallel data analytics finds a two-week provocation window under Kim Jong-un after U.S.-ROK summits. We should expect more provocations to come.

What are the Challenges for the New South Korean President?

Governance
, by and Exit polls from the May 9th election in South Korea indicate that Moon Jae-in will be the country’s next president. Moon will enter office after more than six months of domestic political turmoil following the impeachment of former South Korean president Park Geun-hye. Under these circumstances, Moon is likely to face a series of domestic and foreign policy challenges early in his presidential term.