Summit Silver Lining: Absence of North Korean Provocations Continue

Analysis, Foreign Affairs, Nuclear Weapons
, by There has been much criticism of President Trump's impulsive actions and the unconventionality of the Singapore Summit. However, absent a complete breakdown of the encounter between the leaders, the summit is likely to produce a negotiation process between the United States and North Korea that will implement the mandates laid out by the leaders on denuclearization, security assurances, and a peace process on the Korean peninsula.

No Launch Activity in Advance of Inter-Korean Summit

Military
On Saturday April 21, commercial satellite imagery from the Sohae Satellite Launching Station indicates minimal to no activity ahead of the inter-Korean summit. While dwindled ground activity could be attributed to the fact that images were taken during a weekend, the absence of any parked vehicular traffic and human activity suggests compliance with the leadership’s declaration, coming out of the Third Plenary of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party.

The Devil’s Weapons: What Ordinary North Koreans Think about their Nuclear Program

Analysis, Nuclear Weapons
, by and Reports of ubiquitous celebrations of nuclear weapons accomplishments stand in stark contrast with a new micro-survey commissioned by Beyond Parallel of North Korean citizens. Conducted throughout the summer and fall of 2017 with a cross-section of North Korean citizens, the vast majority of North Korean respondents did not have a positive attitude toward their country’s nuclear weapons program.

North Korea WMD Activity in December: Naughty or Nice?

Military
, by On November 22, predictive signals by Predata/CSIS Beyond Parallel indicate there is an elevated likelihood of a North Korean WMD activity in the next 14 to 30 day windows. The likelihood of WMD activity in the coming weeks is tempered by the fact that, historically, North Korea has not conducted many tests in the November and December timeframe.

More North Korean Rocket Tests Possibly on the Horizon

Military
, by Predata-Beyond Parallel signals indicate there is a significantly elevated chance of North Korea conducting a missile test in the next 30-days and an elevated likelihood of North Korea conducting a missile test in the next 14-days... [footer]   Elevated chance of a North Korean missile test in the next 14 days.…

North Korean Missile Tests Possible Before September Ends

Military
, by On September 7, predictive signals by Predata/CSIS Beyond Parallel indicate there is a significantly elevated chance of a North Korean missile test in the next 14 days. The underlying signal has been breaching its highest levels each day since August 31, reaching its highest level in 102 days on September 5 and exceeding its 30-day trailing average by 2.5 standard deviations. The signal continued to show significant overnight increases through September 6.

Ramifications of North Korea’s Sixth Nuclear Test

Analysis, Nuclear Weapons
North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test on September 3, 2017. North Korean state media announced that the test was of a hydrogen bomb that could fit on the top of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)... On September 3, North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test. North Korean state media announced…

Next Steps After North Korea’s July 4th Missile Test

Military
North Korea launched a land-based, intermediate range ballistic missile from North Pyongan province that flew for 37 minutes and 933 km (580 miles) in the morning of July 4. CSIS Beyond Parallel data analytics finds a two-week provocation window under Kim Jong-un after U.S.-ROK summits. We should expect more provocations to come.