September 7, 2017 Marie DuMond—
On September 7, predictive signals by Predata/CSIS Beyond Parallel indicate there is a significantly elevated chance of a North Korean missile test in the next 14 days. The underlying signal has been breaching its highest levels each day since August 31, reaching its highest level in 102 days on September 5 and exceeding its 30-day trailing average by 2.5 standard deviations. The signal continued to show significant overnight increases through September 6.
September 6, 2017—
North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test on September 3, 2017. North Korean state media announced that the test was of a hydrogen bomb that could fit on the top of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)... On September 3, North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test. North Korean state media announced…
July 4, 2017—
North Korea launched a land-based, intermediate range ballistic missile from North Pyongan province that flew for 37 minutes and 933 km (580 miles) in the morning of July 4. CSIS Beyond Parallel data analytics finds a two-week provocation window under Kim Jong-un after U.S.-ROK summits. We should expect more provocations to come.
May 12, 2017 Marie DuMond—
A Predata-CSIS Beyond Parallel May 12 prediction indicates there is a 69% likelihood of North Korean weapons of mass destruction (WMD) activity taking place in the next 14 days. In the next 30 days, there is an 85% chance for North Korean WMD activity. Beyond Parallel defines WMD activity as nuclear tests and missile launches.
April 18, 2017 Victor Cha—
To study the relationship between North Korean provocations and South Korean elections, Beyond Parallel created a new database of events incorporating both presidential and national assembly elections from the Republic of Korea (ROK) over the last six decades.
April 13, 2017 Marie DuMond—
A Predata-CSIS Beyond Parallel April 13 prediction indicates there is a 58% likelihood of North Korean WMD activity taking place in the next 14 days. In the next 30 days, there is an 84% chance for North Korean WMD activity. Beyond Parallel defines WMD activity as nuclear tests and missile launches.
April 5, 2017 Marie DuMond—
Beyond Parallel datasets and big data analytics powered by Predata indicate we can expect more North Korean missiles throughout April. Last month bore that prediction out already with four ballistic missiles launched simultaneously on March 6, one failed ballistic missile launch on March 22, and two additional rocket/missile engine tests. In its latest action, on April 5, North Korea fired a ballistic missile from a location near the city of Sinpo which flew approximately 37 miles into the sea east of the Korean peninsula.
March 9, 2017 Marie DuMond—
Predata’s North Korea WMD overview signal captured a notable spike in conversations just two days prior to North Korea’s March 6 missile launches... A Predata-Beyond Parallel prediction indicates there is a 43% chance of North Korean WMD activity…
February 22, 2017 Scott LaFoy—
With its latest missile test, DPRK is sending the message that it is moving towards a domestically-produced survivable second strike capability, something that would contribute towards a credible North Korean deterrent against its neighbors and opponents.
October 17, 2016—
Last week marked the 10th anniversary of North Korea’s first nuclear test. Each new nuclear test triggers comparisons with previous tests and predictions about future tests... Last week marked the 10th anniversary of North Korea’s first nuclear test. Each new nuclear…