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Geopolitics and President Moon’s Economic Policy Development

Economics, Governance
July 18, 2017, by — South Korea’s New President, in Trying to Develop Economic Policy, is Caught up in Geopolitics. South Korea’s new president, Moon Jae-in, in his first two months in office is trying to ease the country’s relations with North Korea just as liberal predecessors, Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, sought to do. Moon opened the door to negotiations and even a summit with the North’s Kim Jong Un, but he has also spoken critically of the North’s missile tests and, with a missile firing and flyovers conducted with the U.S., flexed the South’s military muscles. Moon’s economic strategy is unfolding in a similar manner, with ideas that are like those of the progressive leaders past and some tactics that show he recognizes when difficult choices are needed.

Promoting Democracy, Human Rights, and the Rule of Law

Governance, Human Rights
July 12, 2017, by — One of the most important recent steps forward was the creation of the United Nations Commission of Inquiry on DPRK human rights violations and its ground-breaking report which was issued in 2014. That report concluded that the DPRK regime systematically violated the human rights of its own people—including freedom of thought, expression and religion; freedom from discrimination; freedom of movement and residence; and the right to food.

Next Steps After North Korea’s July 4th Missile Test

Military
July 4, 2017— North Korea launched a land-based, intermediate range ballistic missile from North Pyongan province that flew for 37 minutes and 933 km (580 miles) in the morning of July 4. CSIS Beyond Parallel data analytics finds a two-week provocation window under Kim Jong-un after U.S.-ROK summits. We should expect more provocations to come.

Travel to North Korea: Should it be Prohibited in the Aftermath of American Student’s Death?

Foreign Affairs, Governance, Human Rights
June 26, 2017, by — The tragic death of Otto Warmbier has again raised the question of whether travel to North Korea ought to be prohibited by the United States government. Prohibiting travel by Americans to North Korea has been talked about for some time, primarily on Capitol Hill. Arguments for a travel ban are (1) to protect the safety and wellbeing of American citizens; and (2) travel is a source of hard currency for the Kim regime which goes to the “royal economy” for imported French cognac and luxury automobiles for the young leader, as well as to fund nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

Peaking Possibilities of May North Korea WMD Activity

Military
May 12, 2017, by — A Predata-CSIS Beyond Parallel May 12 prediction indicates there is a 69% likelihood of North Korean weapons of mass destruction (WMD) activity taking place in the next 14 days. In the next 30 days, there is an 85% chance for North Korean WMD activity. Beyond Parallel defines WMD activity as nuclear tests and missile launches.

What are the Challenges for the New South Korean President?

Governance
May 10, 2017, by and — Exit polls from the May 9th election in South Korea indicate that Moon Jae-in will be the country’s next president. Moon will enter office after more than six months of domestic political turmoil following the impeachment of former South Korean president Park Geun-hye. Under these circumstances, Moon is likely to face a series of domestic and foreign policy challenges early in his presidential term.

Polls Quiet, Predata Signals Take the Pulse of the South Korean Electorate

Governance
May 5, 2017, by — On May 9, South Koreans go to the polls in a snap presidential election. Predata signals show that with the vote approaching, online conversations about the economy are louder than those about national security. The latest public opinion surveys found Moon held a commanding lead. But a polling blackout took effect on May 3, leaving observers to wonder how public sentiment may shift in the crucial week before balloting.